While crime statistics indicate a decrease in violent acts across the United States in recent years, a significant portion of the American population perceives the nation as increasingly violent. This perception is often fueled by highly publicized events such as the U.S. Capitol riot and warnings from the Department of Homeland Security about potential domestic threats. In this climate of heightened concern, a new study from the risk assessment application, Augurisk Now, emerges, pinpointing the ten most dangerous neighborhoods in the country. This report offers crucial insights for travelers, concerned residents, and individuals considering property investments.
Augurisk Now, launched recently, is designed to help users monitor the likelihood of both criminal activities and natural disasters. This free application employs proprietary risk-scoring algorithms to alert users when they enter a potentially dangerous area, characterized by predicted or observed high crime rates. Beyond crime, the app also provides risk assessments for natural disasters including floods, earthquakes, wildfires, and storms.
Mohamed Mezian, the founder of Augurisk, explains the app’s origin: “Years ago, while searching for a property safe from floods and earthquakes, I was surprised by the absence of a service providing such vital information in an accessible format. This realization sparked the idea for Augurisk, with our core mission being to empower individuals and businesses to better prepare for future risks.”
To identify the top ten most dangerous neighborhoods in the U.S., Augurisk conducted a detailed analysis of its data, focusing on Census block groups—statistical divisions typically encompassing 600 to 3,000 residents. The assessment measured each block group based on predicted violent crime occurrences and the violent crime rate per 100,000 residents. Simon de Bonviller, lead scientist at Augurisk, clarifies the data sources: “The crime analysis is based on predictions from our machine learning crime prediction algorithm. Additional contextual factors are derived from the American Community Survey 2014-2018 5-Year estimates.”
Interestingly, some cities frequently cited as the most dangerous in the U.S., such as Detroit and Memphis, are absent from Augurisk’s list. De Bonviller explains this discrepancy by pointing to the level of analysis: “Our focus is on block groups—neighborhoods—whereas other rankings often consider crime statistics across entire cities or law enforcement jurisdictions. A single dangerous neighborhood doesn’t necessarily make an entire city dangerous, and vice versa.”
Another key factor contributing to the unique findings of the Augurisk study is their predictive methodology. The machine learning algorithm was trained using 188 predictors, encompassing socioeconomic, demographic, climatic, and law enforcement variables, among others. “This algorithm was trained using the precise location and type of crimes committed in 11 U.S. cities between 2014 and 2018, including Detroit,” de Bonviller states. “The ranking is based on our algorithm’s predictions of expected crime given these 188 predictors, not solely on past crime rates, which can explain some differences from other rankings.”
Despite the data-driven approach, de Bonviller and the Augurisk team expressed surprise at the results, particularly the prevalence of dangerous neighborhoods in California. “Initially, focusing solely on crime rate led to parks, airports, and similar areas with low populations being identified as riskiest. When population is low, crime risk can be skewed when using crime rate alone. Therefore, we incorporated the absolute number of crimes as an additional criterion. We were also surprised by the high number of West Coast block groups in the ranking, especially in Los Angeles and San Francisco.”
Continue reading to explore the specifics of America’s most dangerous neighborhoods, as identified by the Augurisk study. For individuals relocating or considering property purchases, Augurisk offers resources like a public county risk assessment tool and a website for generating free natural disaster and societal risk reports, aiding in informed decision-making about safety and risk.
Unveiling the Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America
The study pinpoints the most dangerous neighborhood in the United States as located in Los Angeles. Specifically, it is the block group bordered by E. 5th St., S. Los Angeles St., Boyd St., and S. San Pedro St.
1. Los Angeles, California
Block group delimited by E. 5th St., S. Los Angeles St., Boyd St., and S. San Pedro St.
Predicted Violent Crimes Per Year: 239
Predicted Violent Crime Rate: 347 crimes per 1,000 residents
Delving into the Details: “This downtown Los Angeles block group is predicted to be the most dangerous in the U.S.,” explains de Bonviller. “Within these few blocks, 55% of households reported earning less than $10,000 annually between 2014 and 2018, placing them in the bottom 0.2% of U.S. block groups for income. The median household income is approximately $9,175 per year. A significant 83% of residents are male—a demographic often correlated with higher crime rates—and about 80% of the population aged 16 and over are not part of the labor force, exceeding 99% of U.S. block groups in this regard.”
2. Los Angeles, California
Block group delimited by Santa Monica Fwy., Maple Ave., E. 9th / S. Los Angeles St., E. 7th St., Gladys Ave., E. Olympic Blvd., and S. Alameda St.
Predicted Violent Crimes Per Year: 407
Predicted Violent Crime Rate: 293 crimes per 1,000 residents
Delving into the Details: “The second highest violent crime risk is also found in downtown Los Angeles, bordering the Santa Monica Freeway,” notes de Bonviller. “The population here is younger than 80% of U.S. block groups. The median age for males is 30.6 years and for females 32.5 years, with a notably higher proportion of males at 64%. This demographic profile is linked to unemployment challenges, with an unemployment rate higher than 87% of the U.S. between 2014 and 2018.”
3. Los Angeles, California
Block group delimited by E. 7th St., S. San Pedro St., E. 5th St. / S. Central Ave. / E. 4th, and S. Alameda St.
Predicted Violent Crimes Per Year: 456
Predicted Violent Crime Rate: 291 crimes per 1,000 residents
Delving into the Details: “In this block group, 60% of households surveyed between 2014 and 2018 lived on less than $10,000 a year, a proportion exceeding 99.9% of U.S. block groups. The median household income was $7,188 annually, ranking this area among the 65 poorest neighborhoods in the United States,” de Bonviller elaborates. “The population is predominantly male (69%), with a higher than average median age (53.2 years for males, 52.9 years for females).”
4. San Francisco, California
Block group delimited by Division St. / 9th / Brennan / 10th / Bryant / 11th St., Harrison St., 6th St., and Townsend St.
Predicted Violent Crimes Per Year: 296
Predicted Violent Crime Rate: 298 crimes per 1,000 residents
Delving into the Details: “This block group in downtown San Francisco, intersected by Highway 80, ranks fourth,” says de Bonviller. “Despite a high median household income of $158,958 per year—greater than 97% of U.S. block groups—it is considered high risk due to high violent crime counts and rates. Contributing factors include a significant male population (61%), a relatively young median age (younger than 77% of U.S. block groups), and a high prevalence of low-income households in adjacent block groups (more than 98.4% of the U.S.). This area also has a high predicted property crime rate.”
5. Kansas City, Missouri
Block group delimited by E. 8th St., Prospect Ave., E. 12th St., and Cleveland Ave.
Predicted Violent Crimes Per Year: 182
Predicted Violent Crime Rate: 304 crimes per 1,000 residents
Delving into the Details: “In this Kansas City block group, 31% of households reported incomes below $10,000 annually, exceeding 98% of U.S. block groups,” states de Bonviller. “With a median household income of $20,391, residents typically earn less than 97% of block groups nationally. Additionally, a high proportion (approximately 56%) of residents are not in the labor force (top 7% nationally). It’s worth noting this block group includes a stadium and a park. In such areas, which attract many visitors but have few residents, crime rate calculations can be inflated. This is why our ranking uses both crime rate and the absolute number of predicted crimes.”
6. Los Angeles, California
Block group delimited by E. 7th St., S. Los Angeles St., E. 5th St., and San Julian St.
Predicted Violent Crimes Per Year: 407
Predicted Violent Crime Rate: 226 crimes per 1,000 residents
Delving into the Details: “This Los Angeles block group has one of the lowest median household incomes in the nation: 47% of households earned less than $10,000 a year at the time of the ACS Survey, with a median household income of $10,397 per year—lower than 99.9% of U.S. block groups,” explains de Bonviller. “These economic challenges are compounded by a high unemployment rate (top 8% nationally) and a high proportion of males (86%, top 1% nationally). Furthermore, a significant portion of residents are outside the labor force (68%, top 2% nationally), likely linked to a high median age of 56.4 years.”
7. San Francisco, California
Block group delimited by Market St., Powell St., Bush St., and 1st St.
Predicted Violent Crimes Per Year: 227
Predicted Violent Crime Rate: 247 crimes per 1,000 residents
Delving into the Details: “This San Francisco block group, encompassing Union Square, ranks seventh despite a relatively high median household income ($66,667, slightly above the national average during the ACS Survey),” says de Bonviller. “Violent crime here is associated with a high prediction of property crime, ranking among the top 10 block groups for predicted property crimes in the United States.”
8. San Francisco, California
Block group delimited by Turk St., Taylor St., Ellis St., Powell St., and Market St.
Predicted Violent Crimes Per Year: 242
Predicted Violent Crime Rate: 203 crimes per 1,000 residents
Delving into the Details: “Households in this block group reported a $20,583 annual median household income during the 2014-2018 ACS, placing them in the bottom 3% in the U.S.,” de Bonviller explains. “60% of the population aged 16 and over were not in the labor force (top 4% in the U.S.). The population is predominantly male (66%, top 2%), with a median age of 55.1 years (top 6%).”
9. Portland, Oregon
Block group delimited by Steel Bridge, the Willamette River, Fremont Bridge, N. Russel St., N. Williams Ave. / NE Thompson St., the NE Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd. / NE Hancock St. / NE 1st Ave. / NE Weidler St., Pacific Highway, and the BNSF Railroad.
Predicted Violent Crimes Per Year: 181
Predicted Violent Crime Rate: 210 crimes per 1,000 residents
Delving into the Details: “28% of households in this Portland, OR, block group lived on less than $10,000 a year during the survey (top 3% nationally),” says de Bonviller. “Additionally, 65% of residents had moved in within the last four years (top 16%). Residents also face unemployment challenges, with an unemployment rate higher than in 96% of U.S. block groups nationally.”
10. Kansas City, Kansas
Block group delimited by Ann Ave., N. 10th St., Washington Blvd., N. 3rd St. / Minnesota Ave. / N. 4th St.
Predicted Violent Crimes Per Year: 187
Predicted Violent Crime Rate: 204 crimes per 1,000 residents
Delving into the Details: “In this Kansas City, Kansas block group, 48% of households lived on less than $10,000 a year during the American Community Survey 2014-2018, exceeding 99.7% of block groups nationally,” states de Bonviller. “The median household income was $11,000 a year (bottom 0.2% nationally). Residents also experienced an unemployment rate higher than 92% of U.S. block groups, with about 66% of residents outside the labor force. The median age of residents is older than average within block groups—50.9 years for males, 49.5 years for women—while neighboring block groups are much younger (around 30.7 years).”
This study by Augurisk Now sheds light on the areas facing the highest predicted violent crime risks in the United States, emphasizing the critical role of socioeconomic factors in neighborhood safety. For those seeking to assess risk in their current or future locations, Augurisk’s tools offer valuable resources for informed decision-making and enhanced personal safety awareness.
